The latest estimate is to harvest 14.79 billion bushels of corn this fall. The key pieces are already in place as planting is 89% complete in Illinois, we had rain to get great emergence, excellent number of plants per acre, and the seed companies did a great job in delivering supplies. I was concerned about shortages of quality seed if any replanting would be required on corn acres but minimal replanting was needed and there was enough seed in reserves.
To harvest that record crop we need to grow it first. There will be a lot of steps to take; the right amount of rain, the right amount of heat to grow but not too much to stress the plant, not too much wind or hail, and no pest or plant disease problems. Already the assumption is that none of those will happen and a record yield per acre will be achieved.
We may be able to dodge all those problems and if so the forecast is for corn to average $4.20 - $5.00 a bushel. If China is trying to build reserves now at these prices there will be a lot of opportunity for them and other nations to increase exports from us. Also if we have that much grain in the bins it would benefit everyone to have the ethanol blend rate increased in the gasoline.
The biggest surprise may be in the soybean crop this fall. Wheat is 89% headed vs. an average of 6% at this time. An early harvest will allow for more double crop to soybean acres and more time for those beans to mature. When driving around this weekend I think the amount of acres of beans to be planted was underestimated. The planters are busy putting that seed in the ground right now and should be done next week, the weather forecast is great for fieldwork this week.
On my farm the corn is up and in the three to four leaf stage and all soybeans are planted with some just emerged. I have less forward priced than normal and that is what I hear is common this year.
I hope everyone had a great Mothers Day weekend and happy mothers day to my readers.
Serving together, Dean
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