2012 harvest and 2013 plantings

   We are experiencing the most serious drought this generation has ever seen.  We are assuming at least 10 million acres are to be abandoned or chopped for silage.  The beef herd is in liquidation because of limited feed and high feed costs.  I don't think there will be a great market for silage cut from drought stresses corn. Transportation costs, reduced value from no grain on the plant, less cattle to feed, and the risk of high nitrates in the feed that harm livestock are limiting factors.  The news reports act like the early harvest of the whole plant will be a great advantage but in actuality the damage is done and little income will be obtained with any option available. If some of those 10 million ares are diverted to silage from grain it might as well be recorded as a % of total acres abanded.  My reasoning is that 100 acres of poor corn would compare to 90 acres abanded and 10 harvested. Already I think the average 2012 yield will be around 125 bu./ acres and could be lower as rain has been localized and wide between. Earlier estimates were in the 165 bu./ acre range.
   2013 will face many challenges.  Will the seed supply be adequate to rebuild supplies?  Will the corn bean ratio be set by what seed is available? (We plant hybrid seeds that are produced the year before, if all production is lower this year because of drought seed companies need to rely on expanded acres from South America) Will seed companies be able to expand enough additional acres in South America?  Will we get enough moisture to recharge the soil prior to planting next years crop. 
   As soon as my seed corn and bean supplier will take bookings I plan on placing an order and hope that it will not be reduced by limited supplies.  I plan on planting more soybeans next year not because the are predicted to be returning more profit than corn, but I think my corn has taken all the moisture from the ground and following with corn again next year will require more moisture than following with beans.  I am worried about being too aggressive in presales of 2013 crops with the risk of another year like this.  I am not worried about higher fertilizer prices because if little grain is produced in 2012 minerals will not need to be replaced thus less demand = no significant increase in price.  I am worried about seed prices but how much they increase will not be known for a month or two, I would even book supply before finding price at this point.
   As you can see the risk and stress of this year will be ongoing. I look forward to keeping all updated as conditions change. Please keep the agriculture community in your prayers.
                                                                  Serving together, Dean