Here is the actual report showing the lowered estimates of both acres and yield:
Illinois Field Office • PO Box 19283 • Springfield, IL 62794-9283 • www.nass.usda.gov • 800-622-9865
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT:
August 10, 2012 Brad Schwab or Mark Schleusener
SPRINGFIELD, IL -- The Illinois Field Office of NASS today released the USDA's
August Crop Production Report. State and national highlights of the report include:
ILLINOISThe 2012 Illinois corn crop is expected to yield 116 bushels per acre, down 41
bushels from last year’s yield. If realized, this would be the lowest Illinois corn
yield since 1995. Acres harvested for grain were estimated at 12.6 million. This
is a 200,000 acre decrease from the June Acreage Report as a result of abandonment
and silage chopping. Production of corn for grain would be 1.462 billion bushels,
down 25 percent from 2011.
The 2012 soybean crop in Illinois is expected to yield 37 bushels per acre, 10
bushels below last year’s yield of 47, and the lowest yield since 2003, which was
also 37. Total production for the state is forecast at 309 million bushels, which
is 26 percent below last year’s production. If realized, this will be the lowest
soybean production since 1988. Acreage for harvest was lowered from the June forecast of 8.57 million acres down to 8.35 million acres.
The 2012 winter wheat yield is estimated at 65 bushels per acre, up one bushel from
the July 1 forecast, four bushels above the 2011 yield. With 640 thousand acres
harvested for grain, production would equal 41.6 million bushels, down more than
five million bushels from the 2011 production.
UNITED STATESCorn production is forecast at 10.8 billion bushels, down 13 percent from 2011 and
the lowest production since 2006. Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are
expected to average 123.4 bushels per acre, down 23.8 bushels from 2011. If
realized, this will be the lowest average yield since 1995. Area harvested for
grain is forecast at 87.4 million acres, down 2 percent from the June forecast but
up 4 percent from 2011.
Soybean production is forecast at 2.69 billion bushels, down 12 percent from last
year. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 36.1 bushels per
acre, down 5.4 bushels from last year. If realized, the average yield will be the
lowest since 2003. Area for harvest is forecast at 74.6 million acres, down 1
percent from June but up 1 percent from 2011.
Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.68 billion bushels, up 1 percent from July
and up 13 percent from 2011. Based on August 1 conditions, the United States yield
is forecast at a record high 48.0 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushel from last month
and 1.8 bushels higher than last year. The area expected to be harvested for grain
or seed totals 35.0 million acres, unchanged from last month but up 8 percent from
last year. Hard Red Winter, at 1.01 billion bushels, is up slightly from a month
ago. Soft Red Winter production is up 1 percent from the previous forecast and now
totals 435 million bushels. White Winter production totals 236 million bushels, up
2 percent from last month. Of this total, 13.9 million bushels are Hard White and
222 million bushels are Soft White.
( August 3rd post)
Usually I look for the August crop estimates to give me some good information on the upcoming harvest. The report last year was not a good indicator of harvest yields. This year would be even more problematic. The data being entered reflects conditions as of now, our crop conditions and expected yields have been declining from the day the crop was planted and with temperatures above 100 in many parts of the corn belt tomorrow will be worse. In fact as I drive and view this crop it reminds me of those movie scenes where the bus is balancing on the edge of a cliff and anything can prompt it to fall. Whole counties of corn are on that cliff and each dry hot day sets the scenario of pushing it off the cliff and producing little to nothing. What looked like a 95.7 million acres of corn and 14.79 billion bushels harvested is looking more like 83 million acres and 10.5 billion bushels harvested today. There are so many areas under extreme drought that we could reduce that to 10 billion in one day (6 bu/acre of remaining harvestable acres) if hot dry winds develop. Rains and cooler weather are predicted but variable and widely scattered.
From the above map notice how much is extreme drought. It will be difficult to turn this crop around because damage has already been done. Some areas of severe to moderate drought could be improved with favorable weather. I have seen some maps showing improvement in several Indiana counties, however I know that any rain and soil moisture improvement will only be for next year's crop for some of those farms.
Samples from fields on my farm
Serving together, Dean
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