2013 crop outlook

    There are several things beginning to take place that will impact the 2013 crops.  The first is that we are still about 10 inches short of our normal precipitation for the year.  I don't think we will need to replace that all this winter but we will need to play some catch up when the crops are growing if not before.  I have an animated drought map that may take a few minutes to load but is informative.  The beginning of the map is last year at this time through current conditions and you will see how much area is still in questionable condition.  In fact some of the winter wheat in Kansas had not gone into dormancy with the warmer weather they have had and has began to die because it is trying to grow and has run out of moisture.  If you have watched any of the t.v. shows on the dust bowl the similarity is that the panhandle of Oklahoma is still where the worse is to be normally found.  (map at this link shows a twelve month loop CLICK ON THE 52 BUTTON below map for one year loop) http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/dmimg_archive.htm

    I expect that the corn belt will continue to grow into southern states.  That will probably help keep the planted acres of corn similar to this year.  The majority of producers that were hit with reduced yields this year were able to sell production at a higher price or get insurance coverage for the loss and will be able to afford input costs to produce a good crop if weather permits.  Projections of South American crops are looking good, there has been some delays in planting in Argentina but lately things have improved.  In February we will be able to see if the weather has allowed them to meet those projections.  This spring projections were high for us only to be hit with the July and August weather.  That would correspond to a South American February time. 

  If we can get good yields in South America followed by plantings similar to last spring in the U.S. grain prices will be much lower that today's prices.  If those do not happen world demand will keep prices in the higher ranges. 
 
   I plan to review the types of insurance coverage available this spring and at what prices per acre they will cost as there is so much uncertainty out there.

                                                             Serving together,  Dean